Steven Adams for MVP: How the Memphis Grizzlies Built a Top-10 Offense
Steven Adams hasn’t gotten any MVP chatter, All-NBA buzz, and hardly any All-Star votes (presumably outside of a few from his native New Zealand and the city of his current employer, Memphis). The reason for Adams’ near-universal lack of acclaim is simple to understand. He’s only averaging 25.5 minutes, 7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 0.6 blocks per game.
The truth is, Steven Adams for MVP is a misleading title, but he is indicative of the Memphis Grizzlies’ surprisingly effective offense.
If someone asked you what teams have the best offenses, and you could only know one stat, that one stat would be effective field-goal percentage (eFG%). The stat takes 2-point field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage and weights the fact that one shot is worth 50% more than the other.
The Utah Jazz own both the league’s best offensive rating and eFG%. In fact, the teams with the top eight offensive ratings all have top-12 eFG%s, and then there is the Memphis Grizzlies sitting there in ninth with the league’s 22nd best eFG%.
So how are the Grizzlies sporting a top-10 offense with a bottom third ability to actually hit shots? One might guess they do a bunch of damage at the free-throw line and you’d be wrong. The Grizzlies free throw to field goal attempt rate (FT/FGA) of .171 is 23rd in the NBA.
On offense, the Grizzlies do two things well, that in tandem make a dismal shooting team a top-10 offensive unit.
The most obvious offensive trait of the Grizzlies is their ability to hold onto the ball. Their 11.6% turnover rate (TOV%) is sixth in the league and 0.4% away from being tied for first. However, the difference between being 6th and 24th in the league in turnover rate is minuscule. The Timberwolves 26th ranked turnover percentage is only 13.2%. For a league that has an average pace of 98.2 possessions, a 1.6% difference in turnover rate doesn’t amount to all that much.
The one area where the Grizzlies truly stand out is that they’re absolutely dominant on the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%) is second in the NBA at 28.6% and is only 0.1% off the league lead.
(Everything written about the Grizzlies’ ninth rated offense, can also be said of the Toronto Raptors’ tenth rated offense. The Raptors’ are 26th in eFG% and 24th in FT/FGA, but 2nd in TOV% and 1st in ORB%. Looking into this particular offensive model in more detail could be interesting a showcase a market inefficiency in a league that has become obsessed with shooting)
This is why Steven Adams is the MVP of the league! The Grizzlies’ offense is built around bricks and putbacks, and Mr. Adams is the best in the business at securing second-chance points. His 17.4% ORB% is a full 2% better than Clint Capela in second, and the gap between the league’s best offensive rebounders and the good is significant.
Karl Anthony-Towns sports an ORB% of 8.6%, Adams is more than twice as good, but Towns is tied for the 23rd best ORB% in the league. One Steven Adams is like having two top-25 offensive rebounders.
The effect on the Grizzlies offense is immense. When Adams is on the court, Grizzlies have an ORB% of 34%, and when he sits it drops to 29%. It’s one of the reasons why the Grizzlies score 5.78 more points per 100 possessions, going from a 110.25 offensive rating to 116.02, or the difference between being league average and the 2nd best offense in the NBA.
Obviously, Adams isn’t the only reason the Grizzlies murder on the glass. Brandon Clarke’s 10.9% ORB% and Xavier Tillman Sr’s 9.5% help, but the pair, combined, haven’t even played as many minutes as Adams.
The Grizzlies’ 17.7 2nd chance points per game lead the NBA, and they still have room to improve. While asking them to secure more offensive boards would be ridiculous, their efficiency could easily tick up. Their 1.11 points per putback is middle of the pack, and any slight improvement, with their current volume, could pay huge dividends.
One of the reasons the Grizzlies were able to go 10–2 without Ja Morant is that they kept grabbing their misses at a near league-leading rate. Over their dozen games without their floor general, they posted a 27.9% ORB% to power themselves to a 115.4 offensive rating. Combined with poor opponent shooting, it appeared as if Morant was just another guy.
Steven Adams isn’t a real MVP contender, but that misses the point. The Grizzlies have built a top-third offense by taking care of the ball and crashing the boards at an elite rate. They’re bad at the things that are supposed to be the backbone of elite offenses and it hasn’t mattered.
The Grizzlies 31–15 record is not a mirage, they’re a top-10 defensive team and a top-10 offensive team. There is a lingering feeling that their offensive success isn’t sustainable. Banking on grabbing your misses each night sounds like an offensive strategy from the 70s, but in a league that has drifted towards the perimeter, maybe crushing teams on the offensive boards like Moses Malone is the tactic that can lead the Grizzlies to the promised land.
