Let’s Pump the Brakes on Jamal Murray
The NBA playoffs bring the entire basketball watching community together. A fantastic playoff run can drag an unknown player out of mid-market obscurity and into a fat new signature shoe deal. The playoffs are the season where logic and sample sizes are cast out as everyone overreacts to everything. If you started watching basketball for the first time at the beginning of this year’s playoffs, here would be a few of your takeaways:
- What the fuck is up with these computer people?
- The Celtics are the best team in the league.
- Jamal Murray is the best player in the history of the sport.
So maybe you would have a few other takeaways, but, chances are, you would believe that Jamal Murray is the greatest living basketball player. It would be hard to argue with that conclusion after what he has done to the Utah Jazz, in dramatic fashion no less. In his last three games, Murray has dropped 50, 42, and 50 again as the Nuggets staved off elimination to force a decisive game seven. After those three games, it would be a fair conclusion to draw that that Murray dude is damn-near unstoppable. However, people who have watched basketball for decades have cranked the ridiculousness up to 11 in reaction to Murray’s scoring binge. People have started to ask: Is Murray actually Denver’s best player?; Should he be who they build their team around?; Should I throw Jesus aside and worship at the altar of Murray? No, no, and no, unless you’re privy to join a cult. Now, if you answered yes to any of these questions let me help you earn your freedom because you’ve become a prisoner of the moment.
Let’s start with the basics. Jamal Murray is a good NBA player. Jamal Murray is a decent scorer. He is not a good defender. His passing isn’t horrible but the Nuggets don’t run their offense through him as they have an elite passer already in Nikola Jokic. That pretty much sums up Murray. He can score and boy, does his shot look pretty, but if the ball isn’t going through the hoop he’s not really a useful player. None of this is a knock on Jamal Murray. He spent one year in college and this is only his fourth NBA season. At 23 years old his career looks to be on a fantastic trajectory, but none of it screams best-player on a playoff team.
I kid you not, but before this playoff series, Murray’s 2019–20 was viewed as a disappointment. I’ll say it again, the media loves to be a prisoner of the moment. The reason for the pessimism that shrouded Murray was both fair and unfair. If we look at Murray’s age, per season scoring, and efficiency we can see why there was so much optimism, and then pessimism.
AGE -3P% — 2P% — FTA — FT% — FGA — PTS
19 — 33.4% 46.6% — 1.5 — 88.3% — 8.9 — 9.9
20 — 37.8% 50.2% — 3.1 — 90.5% — 13.1 — 16.7
21 — 36.7% 47.6% — 3.0 — 84.8% — 15.6 — 18.2
22 — 34.6% 51.9% — 3.1 — 88.1% — 15.2 — 18.5
Murray committed the cardinal sin of progressing each season before “stalling out.” It is not uncommon for players to hit a developmental wall but it can throw the average NBA fan offbase. Murray’s fourth season was basically just as good as his third season which feels like a step backward for a player who had taken a step forward each season. This is the unfair criticism of Murray, but it’s predictable. Development happens in leaps and bounds. It is not a linear progression and each developmental leap is harder to make. Murray stalling this season doesn’t mean he’s done improving. It just means he is not able to add scoring efficiency and, or volume, every season into his prime years, because news flash, NO ONE DOES THAT. Murray’s future looks bright, but this is the part where we pump the breaks on Jamal Murray, future league MVP.
Over six games against the Utah Jazz Jamal Murray has averaged 32.6 points, on 57.4% three-point shooting and 59.2% on two-pointers. Good god, that is scorching hot shooting. Is it sustainable? LOL. Not a snowball’s chance in hell. So this is where we reach the crux of the problem with Jamal Murray and realize he is not yet a franchise leading player. Murray doesn’t get to the free-throw line. It’s the biggest gap in his scoring profile and an area that the Nuggets should implore him to try and make a bigger part of his game. Why are free throws so important? It’s simple. Here are the league’s leading scorers, how many free-throws they attempt per game, and where they rank.
(Scoring Rank)Player — — PTS — FTA — FTA Rank
1. James Harden — — — — 34.3 — 11.8 — 1
2. Bradley Beal — — — — - 30.5 — 8.0 — 8
3. Damian Lillard — — —- 30.0 — 7.8 — 9
4. Trae Young — — — — — - 29.6 — 9.3 — 3
5. Giannis Antetok… — — 29.5 — 10.0 — 2
6. Luka Doncic — — — — — 28.8 — 9.2 — 4
7. Russell Westbrook — —- 27.2 — 6.7 — 13
8. Kawhi Leonard — — — — 27.1 — 7.1 — 11
9. Devin Booker — — — —- 26.6 — 7.3 — 10
10. Anthony Davis — — — - 26.1 — 8.5 — 6
If you want to be an elite scorer you need to get to the free-throw line. I know people hate James Harden for seemingly hunting for free-throw attempts like the spawn of Trump hunt endangered species, but literally every great scorer gets and has gotten to the free-throw line an insane amount. Here is a link to the 1992–93 NBA Free-throw attempts per game leaderboard if you don’t believe me.
Murray needs to get to the line more because it’s the difference between him being an elite scorer and just a good scorer. The reason is simple. Some games your shot is on and some games it’s off, but players tend to be very steady from the free-throw line game to game. If you hit seven free-throws a game you can still put up a twenty spot even on a 6 for 18 shooting night. Murray, even as he has been torching the Jazz, has only averaged 3.7 free-throw attempts a game. Let’s not forget that Murray, as great as he has been, four out of six games, has posted two clunkers in this series. In games 2 and 3 Murray scored a combined 26 points! He went 11 for 29 from the field and took and hit one free throw. Compare that to James Harden, who over those two clunkers from the field, would be expected to take close to 24 free-throws. If Murray was elite at generating free-throws he could have added an easy 20 points from the line in those games instead of the 1 he actually added.
As great as Jamal Murray has been in this series, it has made it incredibly apparent the limitations of his offensive game. He is a prisoner to his shooting. The best scorers are not. The best scorers can get to 20 points on only 5 made shots. Murray, when he is scorching hot looks like the best player in the league but when he’s cold he can sink your entire offense. The next step in Murray’s game will be adding three to four free-throw attempts a game to his arsenal. If he can do that then maybe he’ll be the second superstar the Nuggets need to push the best teams in the West. If he doesn’t, he’ll be the same wildly entertaining and wildly disappointing player he has always been. The Nuggets may reach the second round on the back of Murray’s tremendous shooting, but if they want to go farther they’ll need him to accept the charity stripe because free-throws add stability to the wild fluctuations of shooting your shot.
